[Green-Activist] Spiralling cost of bananas... not very mellow!
Roy Garner
rrgarner at bigpond.net.au
Sun May 7 00:15:51 EST 2006
Hi, Anne
Yes, I agree that's the way to go. If only more of us could cut the
umbilical cord of dependency and practise what we preach--start a vegie
patch at home, watch Peter Cundall and his team on Gardening Australia,
apply permaculture methods and form coops to swap (barter) produce, or
buy and distribute it to members!
It's clear to me that the problems and costs of food distribution will
multiply once the fossil fuel crisis really hits.
If anyone thinks this is far-fetched, read the Real Oil Crisis, in the
ABC Catalyst archive at
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm
Read on...
Narration: What would happen if the world started running out of oil?
Jeremy Leggett: It’s going to be very difficult to get gasoline for
transport. Food is not going to be getting through in enough quantities
to the shops,
Narration: Conventional wisdom says that’s at least 30 years away.
So why does a growing group of petroleum experts believe it’s coming
within three?
Eric Streitberg: Ah. I think it’s happening now frankly.
Peter Newman: It gives me nightmares when I think about what we’re
headed for.
Narration: Are they just scaremongerers or have the rest of us been
asleep at the wheel. Are we about to hit the real oil crisis?
Jeremy Leggett: Really when the crisis dawns I think people are going
to be looking back in anger. How have we allowed ourselves to get into
this mess?
Narration: In just a century, we’ve allowed our lives to become
entirely dependent on cheap oil.
Jonica Newby, Reporter: And it’s not just that 90% of our
transportation is fuelled by oil. This shopping centre is literally
full of petroleum products.
Look: the fabric in these clothes – petroleum based. These plastics,
petroleum based. It takes on average 6 barrels of oil just to bring one
cow to market.
Narration: Yet who of us stops to think oil is a finite resource - the
lifeblood of our modern world is steadily pouring away.
Jeremy Leggett: We just take it so much for granted that cars drive
around, the pumps are always full. I talk to people in financial
institutions who are investing on the assumption that oil supplies are
going to grow and grow into the 2030’s. I hardly ever meet anyone who
knows about this problem outside a relatively elite group of
whistleblowers inside and around the oil industry.
Narration: Dr Jeremy Leggett is part of an international splinter group
of petroleum geologists convinced a tipping point on oil is imminent.
This former oil industry insider, now alternative energy advocate, has
written a new book outlining the case.
It makes startling reading.
The most oil ever discovered was way back in 1965.
Narration: This graph traces world oil discoveries.
Since 1965, the amount of oil discovered each year has inexorably
plunged - despite all our advances in technology.
Jeremy Leggett: The last time we discovered a whole new province was
the North Sea in the early 1970’s and really you know these days the
average size of an oil field that gets discovered is about 50 million
barrels. It’s nothing, it’s a drop in the ocean. We’re using 84 million
barrels a day.
The last year we discovered more oil than we consumed was 1981.
We use 2 barrels of oil for every barrel discovered.
Jeremy Leggett: I’ve been talking to people who I know because of my
past in these big oil companies and they tell me there are no more big
oil fields left to find.
Narration: So if we’ve found nearly all the world’s oil, how long
before it runs out?
Surprisingly, that’s not so important. The real question is when will
we reach half way – it’s known as 'peak oil'.
Jonica Newby, Reporter: So what exactly is peak oil, and why is it so
serious? That’s what I’m heading to the west Australian oil fields to
find out.
Narration: My guide is a geologist from deep within the oil industry.
Eric Streitberg is managing director of Australian oil company, ARK
energy.
He’s just decided to go public with his fears.
Eric Streitberg: The reason I feel strongly about this is that people
don’t understand the underlying causes of why petrol prices are going
up and what the effect that could have on our lives.
Narration: Eric is about to show me what happens when an oil field
reaches peak oil.
Eric Streitberg: The oil field was discovered in 2001 and its now on
full production doing about 6000 barrels of oil a day which is about
10% of Western Australia’s consumption.
Jonica Newby, Reporter: Wow: 10%.
Narration: When oil is first pumped, it’s under pressure and comes out
easily – production rises.
But over time, oil pressure drops. Water is pumped in to maintain
pressure. At the half way point, it reaches peak oil, and then-
Eric Streitberg: We’re holding on to peak production at the moment but
we’ll be going into the inexorable decline of all oil fields very
shortly.
Jonica Newby, Reporter: Really, and there’s nothing you can do?
Eric Streitberg: No you can slow the decline but you can’t stop it.
Narration: To ram home the point, Eric takes me to an oil field which
passed peak oil in 1992.
Eric Streitberg: Jonica this is what we are getting out of this old oil
well. It’s 99% water and 1% oil.
Narration: All oil fields follow the same pattern of rise, peak, then
fall – even if they encompass an entire nation.
The US hit peak oil in 1971. The UK with its North Sea oil peaked in
1999. Australia peaked in 2000.
So when will planet earth reach peak oil?
That depends on what’s really happening here. The place that provides a
quarter of the world's oil - the Middle East.
Jeremy Leggett: These governments have not let anyone in to verify how
much oil they have for getting on for a quarter of a century and in the
1980’s there were some really suspicious treatment of oil reserves
data. Most of the Gulf countries increased their national proved
reserves supposedly by in some cases up to double, and then ever since
the quoted figures have not gone down very much at all. I don’t believe
that for a minute.
Narration: The dissident geologists went back to original surveys to
estimate total Middle East oil. They added world known reserves, and
projections of all future oil to be discovered.
That’s how they calculated the world will reach peak oil in the next 3
years – if we’re not there already.
Jeremy Leggett: 2008 maybe 2009, certainly no later than 2010. That’s
the point at which we will no longer be living in a world with growing
supplies of generally cheap oil but instead living in a world of
rapidly shrinking supplies of ever vastly more expensive oil and that
point of realisation is going to come as a real shock.
Then we will see world record oil prices. Who knows how high they can
go.
Narration: So what does the mainstream think?
The world's largest petroleum company is ExxonMobil – Esso. It employs
20,000 scientists to generate their own exhaustive data sets.
In their Melbourne 3D seismography room, I meet head of exploration,
geologist Dr Doug Schwebel.
Doug Schwebel: OK this is a 3 dimensional image of the geology offshore
Bass Strait in Victoria.
Narration: Doug acknowledges oil will run down eventually, he just
vigorously disputes when.
Doug Schwebel: Well people have been predicting for over a hundred
years that we’re going to run out of oil. It hasn’t happened. We don’t
think it’s going to happen in the near term.
Narration: Exxon calculates twice as much oil left in the world as the
so called 'early peakers' - placing peak oil decades away.
Doug Schwebel: I mean we’re talking at least out to 2030 with what we
know today. And then potentially another 20 – 30 years beyond that with
technologies that we can envisage might exist. You know if we can
improve technology by only 10% then we can recover an additional 600 –
800 billion barrels of oil.
Narration: If this majority view is correct, we have plenty of time for
a smooth, market driven transition to alternatives via hybrid cars.
Cruising in the balm of this reassuring future, it's tempting to
dismiss the 'early peak' camp entirely, as a small bunch of vested
interest doomsdayers.
But it’s not that easy.
Petroleum giant Chevron is now running these startling advertisements.
And here in Australia, some surprising people have come out in the
early peak camp.
Earlier this year, Eric Streitberg asked an extraordinary question at
the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association
conference.
Eric Streitberg: I asked them to put up their hands if they thought
that we had reached peak oil. Fifty percent of the people in the
audience put up their hand saying that they believe we’re at peak oil
and these are practicing petroleum industry professionals.
Narration: So what if they’re right?
This is what the early peak camp are terrified of – an apocalyptic gulf
between dwindling supply and rising demand from the voracious east.
Jeremy Leggett: It’s panic that causes collapses in markets. People
start selling their shares. That’s what happened in October 1929 and it
just snowballs.
Eric Streitberg: Rationing - people having to queue for three days to
get a tank full of petrol, people not being able to afford to heat
their houses.
Peter Newman: Getting to 2 to 3 to 4 dollars a litre you really are
grinding to a halt.
Narration: But couldn’t we just switch to alternatives – like solar
cars or hydrogen?
Professor Peter Newman should know. He’s been trying to prepare his
home town of Perth with a post-petroleum transport system - which
includes Australia’s first hydrogen buses.
Peter Newman: This is a transition that can’t be done overnight.
Hydrogen technology is being developed but it’s a 20 year program.
Jonica Newby, Reporter: Twenty years?
Peter Newman: Yeah, the next 20 years are an absolute critical point
where I don’t know that we can make it. I just feel we haven’t started
soon enough.
Narration: The trouble is, if peak oil is imminent, other mooted oil
substitutes, like biofuels, tar sands, shale oil, could only yield a
fraction of the world's needs.
And no one can think of an alternative fuel for aeroplanes.
Jeremy Leggett: So I’ve looked at it all and I don’t see a way of
closing the gap quickly enough. That’s the honest and depressing
answer. It’s all about renaissance. It’s all about how quickly we can
repair the problems and get an alternative infrastructure after the
crisis breaks.
Narration: Whether we reach the end of cheap oil in 3 years or 30, it
will be a defining moment for human society.
Even if there’s only a one in ten chance the early peakers are right,
with the lifeblood of our economy at stake, shouldn’t we listen, just
in case.
Eric Streitberg: If people like myself are taking the view that they
need to speak out, I think it’s time to start taking it seriously.
Peter Newman: We have lots of preparedness for terrorist attacks; but
where’s the plan for peak oil? We don’t have one.
Jeremy Leggett: I think the interesting thing about the problem is that
we’ll find out. We’ll find out who’s right really soon, within a few
years it will happen and play out on our watch.
Story Contacts
Dr Doug Schwebel
Geologist
ExxonMobil
Barry Jones (the late)
Former Executive Director
Australian Petroleum Produciton Exploration Association (APPEA)
Dr Jeremy Leggett
Geologist / author
Eric Streitberg
Managing Director
ARC Energy
John Ellice-Flint
Managing Director
Santos
Prof. Peter Newman
Transport Academic
Murdoch University
On 06/05/2006, at 10:13 PM, Anne Goddard wrote:
> spose..?
> or you and other list members could order a bunch bundy boxes of
> nannies straight to you? for yourselves and friends?
> friend of mine sells passionfruit, is happy getting $18 a box when
> prices are high. I hear they are getting $25 a box on resale.. and u
> guys pay $1 per passionfruit?
>
> seems lots of middle man mark up through the supermarkets.
>
> for $20 i can supply my self with plenty of locally grown
> fresh veggies and food comfortably if i buy at our markets... the same
> amount costs me between $50 to $100 from the supermarket.
>
> We pay for convenience. Simple as that.
>
> Regards
> Anne
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Roy Garner
> To: maillist for Green Activists
> Sent: Saturday, May 06, 2006 5:04 PM
> Subject: Re: [Green-Activist] Spiralling cost of bananas... not very
> mellow!
>
> Hi, again Anne
> Not much on ABC's Landline
> http://www.abc.net.au/landline/archives/
> LandlineSubjectIndx_Bananas.htm Only two stories, one from July 2002
> (Banana grower turns waste into wine), and November 2001 (Scientists
> research banana disease).
> Perhaps we could request they investigate?
> Cheers,
> Roy
>
> On 06/05/2006, at 4:22 PM, Anne Goddard wrote:
>
>> hiya Roy...
>>
>> boy, you would get some bender growers noses out of joint suggesting
>> to
>> import i think...
>>
>> for example, what sort of procedures would need to be put into place
>> to
>> protect the local industries from overseas diseases? how stringently
>> would
>> those procedures be policed?
>> I rescued many green tree frogs from cool room mango and banana boxes
>> (from
>> Queensland) whilst living in Sydney. These delightful little animals
>> are now
>> serving out their lives getting very fat and well cared for behind
>> glass at
>> Taronga now.
>>
>> Unable to be returned home due to the dangers of their importing live
>> disease back.
>>
>> Importing is dangerous.
>>
>> However, keeping an eye on prices, and refusing to pay exorbitant
>> rates
>> should encourage honesty.
>>
>> The local bananas i buy have not increased in price though the majour
>> chain
>> stores prices seem to have doubled. So from what i can see, if you buy
>> locally, from undamaged crops, your pretty right. However, if you
>> have no
>> choice but to buy in majour supermarket chain stores, the prices have
>> doubled (here) in some stores, not a happy state for our city
>> dwellers.
>>
>> Therefore my first hand report from bundaberg..
>>
>> In banana producing rural areas (crop unaffected by storms - probably
>> a
>> bumper season) prices are stable, in the larger market, they are being
>> heavily affected by price increases.
>>
>> Says something for growing locally doesnt it.
>>
>> Cheers
>> Anne
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Roy Garner" <rrgarner at bigpond.net.au>
>> To: "maillist for Green Activists"
>> <green-activist at lists.altnews.com.au>
>> Sent: Saturday, May 06, 2006 2:05 PM
>> Subject: [Green-Activist] Spiralling cost of bananas
>>
>>
>> Dear Activists,
>> Just after Cyclone Larry, concerns were expressed about profiteering
>> because of alleged shortages in the supply of bananas, but they were
>> just as quickly dropped, and consumers have been left in the dark as
>> to
>> why the price of bananas has gone through the ceiling, topping $10 in
>> Sydney, with rumours putting the price as high as $15 in some places.
>> The high costs of transportation and remoteness of alternative
>> supplies
>> are cited as reasons for the price hike, but without a comprehensive
>> investigation, consumers' suspicions will not be laid to rest, with
>> the
>> truth benders vying with the banana benders for centre stage.
>> If you're unhappy with the prices, you can help the push to uncover
>> the
>> truth by registering your complaint with the Australian Competition
>> and
>> Consumer Commission at
>> http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/54217/fromItemId/
>> 3634
>> But the ACCC won't really act unless you can give them evidence of
>> collusion to fix process. So please put the word around and gather the
>> evidence, if you can.
>> Some questions you might ask:
>> What is the true extent of the crop loss, and are there sufficient
>> reserves in storage to supply local markets until the new season
>> bananas come on stream?
>> Are banana growers in areas not affected by the cyclone exporting
>> their
>> best bananas rather than sending them to local markets?
>> Would importing bananas help bring the prices down?
>> Cheers,
>> Roy
>>
>> _______________________________________________
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