[Green-Activist] Spiralling cost of bananas... not very mellow!
Roy Garner
rrgarner at bigpond.net.au
Sun May 7 13:30:47 EST 2006
Hi, Anne
You're not alone, as is clear from the Catalyst programme. They're
still on the job, and I expect we'll hear more and more of this. So
many whistleblowers they'll be able to form an orchestra!
As you can see, there is no substitute for aviation fuel, so if
countries want to continue fighting their dirty wars, this diminishing
resource will soon be prioritised and the cost of all international
travel and freight will go through the ceiling. The hydrogen fuel cell
development is still in its infancy, As Professor Peter Newman says:
"Hydrogen technology is being developed but it’s a 20 year program."
To bridge the gap between fossil fuel and the alternatives will need an
international response on the scale of the Manhattan Project, which
developed the A-bomb during the World War 2.
But the current crop of Australian conservative politicians, cynical
vote harvesters and apologists for the fossil fuel lobby, are incapable
of addressing this serious issue.
Will the befuddled among us continue to vote for these
head-in-the-sand, she'll-be-alright, science-will-solve-everything
conservatives?
Now there's even talk of exploiting unknown reserves in the Great
Australian Bight
(http://theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,18632913
-5004220,00.html
http://www.ga.gov.au/ausgeonews/ausgeonews200503/bignewoil.jsp)-- an
exploitation that would conflict with the significance of the zone's
biological diversity, now the subject of ongoing study (see, for
example, www.deh.gov.au/coasts/mpa/gab/review/pubs/review.pdf Benthic
Protection Zone of the Great Australian Bight Marine Park).
... more to come!
On 07/05/2006, at 1:09 AM, Anne Goddard wrote:
> Hi Roy
>
> The doom and gloom is clear to see.
>
> I used to work for Ampol Petroleum Limited.
>
> I worked with Senior Supply Analysts. U know what they do? they look
> at where our new supplies are gonna come from. there aren't any. there
> havent been for a long time.
> less u wanna dig up our dead reef...
> but thats gonna run out too soon anyhows.
>
> Some of these old bosses remain my friends and referees when job
> seeking. we talk on the phone as mates.
> I am sure they give me good references, i organise well ;-)
>
> I typed up their strategic plans...
> highly confidential stuff... see if you can get hold of a newer one?
> be interested to see their "predictions".
> I hear the best place to find information you seek... on exactly when
> the crunch is coming is the Australian institute of petroleum...
> but u have to pay... and i dont have any money.
>
> i realised back then (in 1989) what we were heading for.
> I saw johnny howard as the treasurer... bring in new industrial
> relations systems...
>
> cleva fella
>
> privatised the re-fuellers first...
> then we (the secretaries and admin assistants) were made "staff"...
> lost our Rostered Days Off...
> :-( the one day a month i had to take my 9 month old out midweek.
> i didnt wanna lose it, but if i stood in the way, i would have lost my
> job... i know.
>
> the rot set in long ago...
>
> and i have been trying to shout very loudly from the rooftops ever
> since.... no one was listening.
>
> i shouted so hard, and had to even run as a candidate to shout louder!
> (I HATE public speaking)
> twice!
>
> what we do... ;-)
>
> anyhows....
>
> i have 41 acres up here...
> you're all welcome when the shit hits the fan
> just help and dont hinder, please.
>
> :-)
> anne
>
> Original Message -----
> From: Roy Garner
> To: maillist for Green Activists
> Sent: Sunday, May 07, 2006 12:15 AM
> Subject: Re: [Green-Activist] Spiralling cost of bananas... not very
> mellow!
>
> Hi, Anne
> Yes, I agree that's the way to go. If only more of us could cut the
> umbilical cord of dependency and practise what we preach--start a
> vegie patch at home, watch Peter Cundall and his team on Gardening
> Australia, apply permaculture methods and form coops to swap (barter)
> produce, or buy and distribute it to members!
> It's clear to me that the problems and costs of food distribution will
> multiply once the fossil fuel crisis really hits.
> If anyone thinks this is far-fetched, read the Real Oil Crisis, in the
> ABC Catalyst archive at
> http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm
> Read on...
> Narration: What would happen if the world started running out of oil?
> Jeremy Leggett: It’s going to be very difficult to get gasoline for
> transport. Food is not going to be getting through in enough
> quantities to the shops,
> Narration: Conventional wisdom says that’s at least 30 years away.
> So why does a growing group of petroleum experts believe it’s coming
> within three?
> Eric Streitberg: Ah. I think it’s happening now frankly.
> Peter Newman: It gives me nightmares when I think about what we’re
> headed for.
> Narration: Are they just scaremongerers or have the rest of us been
> asleep at the wheel. Are we about to hit the real oil crisis?
> Jeremy Leggett: Really when the crisis dawns I think people are going
> to be looking back in anger. How have we allowed ourselves to get into
> this mess?
> Narration: In just a century, we’ve allowed our lives to become
> entirely dependent on cheap oil.
> Jonica Newby, Reporter: And it’s not just that 90% of our
> transportation is fuelled by oil. This shopping centre is literally
> full of petroleum products.
> Look: the fabric in these clothes – petroleum based. These plastics,
> petroleum based. It takes on average 6 barrels of oil just to bring
> one cow to market.
> Narration: Yet who of us stops to think oil is a finite resource - the
> lifeblood of our modern world is steadily pouring away.
> Jeremy Leggett: We just take it so much for granted that cars drive
> around, the pumps are always full. I talk to people in financial
> institutions who are investing on the assumption that oil supplies are
> going to grow and grow into the 2030’s. I hardly ever meet anyone who
> knows about this problem outside a relatively elite group of
> whistleblowers inside and around the oil industry.
> Narration: Dr Jeremy Leggett is part of an international splinter
> group of petroleum geologists convinced a tipping point on oil is
> imminent.
> This former oil industry insider, now alternative energy advocate, has
> written a new book outlining the case.
> It makes startling reading.
> The most oil ever discovered was way back in 1965.
> Narration: This graph traces world oil discoveries.
> Since 1965, the amount of oil discovered each year has inexorably
> plunged - despite all our advances in technology.
> Jeremy Leggett: The last time we discovered a whole new province was
> the North Sea in the early 1970’s and really you know these days the
> average size of an oil field that gets discovered is about 50 million
> barrels. It’s nothing, it’s a drop in the ocean. We’re using 84
> million barrels a day.
> The last year we discovered more oil than we consumed was 1981.
> We use 2 barrels of oil for every barrel discovered.
> Jeremy Leggett: I’ve been talking to people who I know because of my
> past in these big oil companies and they tell me there are no more big
> oil fields left to find.
> Narration: So if we’ve found nearly all the world’s oil, how long
> before it runs out?
> Surprisingly, that’s not so important. The real question is when will
> we reach half way – it’s known as 'peak oil'.
> Jonica Newby, Reporter: So what exactly is peak oil, and why is it so
> serious? That’s what I’m heading to the west Australian oil fields to
> find out.
> Narration: My guide is a geologist from deep within the oil industry.
> Eric Streitberg is managing director of Australian oil company, ARK
> energy.
> He’s just decided to go public with his fears.
> Eric Streitberg: The reason I feel strongly about this is that people
> don’t understand the underlying causes of why petrol prices are going
> up and what the effect that could have on our lives.
> Narration: Eric is about to show me what happens when an oil field
> reaches peak oil.
> Eric Streitberg: The oil field was discovered in 2001 and its now on
> full production doing about 6000 barrels of oil a day which is about
> 10% of Western Australia’s consumption.
> Jonica Newby, Reporter: Wow: 10%.
> Narration: When oil is first pumped, it’s under pressure and comes out
> easily – production rises.
> But over time, oil pressure drops. Water is pumped in to maintain
> pressure. At the half way point, it reaches peak oil, and then-
> Eric Streitberg: We’re holding on to peak production at the moment but
> we’ll be going into the inexorable decline of all oil fields very
> shortly.
> Jonica Newby, Reporter: Really, and there’s nothing you can do?
> Eric Streitberg: No you can slow the decline but you can’t stop it.
> Narration: To ram home the point, Eric takes me to an oil field which
> passed peak oil in 1992.
> Eric Streitberg: Jonica this is what we are getting out of this old
> oil well. It’s 99% water and 1% oil.
> Narration: All oil fields follow the same pattern of rise, peak, then
> fall – even if they encompass an entire nation.
> The US hit peak oil in 1971. The UK with its North Sea oil peaked in
> 1999. Australia peaked in 2000.
> So when will planet earth reach peak oil?
> That depends on what’s really happening here. The place that provides
> a quarter of the world's oil - the Middle East.
> Jeremy Leggett: These governments have not let anyone in to verify how
> much oil they have for getting on for a quarter of a century and in
> the 1980’s there were some really suspicious treatment of oil reserves
> data. Most of the Gulf countries increased their national proved
> reserves supposedly by in some cases up to double, and then ever since
> the quoted figures have not gone down very much at all. I don’t
> believe that for a minute.
> Narration: The dissident geologists went back to original surveys to
> estimate total Middle East oil. They added world known reserves, and
> projections of all future oil to be discovered.
> That’s how they calculated the world will reach peak oil in the next 3
> years – if we’re not there already.
> Jeremy Leggett: 2008 maybe 2009, certainly no later than 2010. That’s
> the point at which we will no longer be living in a world with growing
> supplies of generally cheap oil but instead living in a world of
> rapidly shrinking supplies of ever vastly more expensive oil and that
> point of realisation is going to come as a real shock.
> Then we will see world record oil prices. Who knows how high they can
> go.
> Narration: So what does the mainstream think?
> The world's largest petroleum company is ExxonMobil – Esso. It employs
> 20,000 scientists to generate their own exhaustive data sets.
> In their Melbourne 3D seismography room, I meet head of exploration,
> geologist Dr Doug Schwebel.
> Doug Schwebel: OK this is a 3 dimensional image of the geology
> offshore Bass Strait in Victoria.
> Narration: Doug acknowledges oil will run down eventually, he just
> vigorously disputes when.
> Doug Schwebel: Well people have been predicting for over a hundred
> years that we’re going to run out of oil. It hasn’t happened. We don’t
> think it’s going to happen in the near term.
> Narration: Exxon calculates twice as much oil left in the world as the
> so called 'early peakers' - placing peak oil decades away.
> Doug Schwebel: I mean we’re talking at least out to 2030 with what we
> know today. And then potentially another 20 – 30 years beyond that
> with technologies that we can envisage might exist. You know if we can
> improve technology by only 10% then we can recover an additional 600 –
> 800 billion barrels of oil.
> Narration: If this majority view is correct, we have plenty of time
> for a smooth, market driven transition to alternatives via hybrid
> cars.
> Cruising in the balm of this reassuring future, it's tempting to
> dismiss the 'early peak' camp entirely, as a small bunch of vested
> interest doomsdayers.
> But it’s not that easy.
> Petroleum giant Chevron is now running these startling advertisements.
>
> And here in Australia, some surprising people have come out in the
> early peak camp.
> Earlier this year, Eric Streitberg asked an extraordinary question at
> the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association
> conference.
> Eric Streitberg: I asked them to put up their hands if they thought
> that we had reached peak oil. Fifty percent of the people in the
> audience put up their hand saying that they believe we’re at peak oil
> and these are practicing petroleum industry professionals.
> Narration: So what if they’re right?
> This is what the early peak camp are terrified of – an apocalyptic
> gulf between dwindling supply and rising demand from the voracious
> east.
> Jeremy Leggett: It’s panic that causes collapses in markets. People
> start selling their shares. That’s what happened in October 1929 and
> it just snowballs.
> Eric Streitberg: Rationing - people having to queue for three days to
> get a tank full of petrol, people not being able to afford to heat
> their houses.
> Peter Newman: Getting to 2 to 3 to 4 dollars a litre you really are
> grinding to a halt.
> Narration: But couldn’t we just switch to alternatives – like solar
> cars or hydrogen?
> Professor Peter Newman should know. He’s been trying to prepare his
> home town of Perth with a post-petroleum transport system - which
> includes Australia’s first hydrogen buses.
> Peter Newman: This is a transition that can’t be done overnight.
> Hydrogen technology is being developed but it’s a 20 year program.
> Jonica Newby, Reporter: Twenty years?
> Peter Newman: Yeah, the next 20 years are an absolute critical point
> where I don’t know that we can make it. I just feel we haven’t started
> soon enough.
> Narration: The trouble is, if peak oil is imminent, other mooted oil
> substitutes, like biofuels, tar sands, shale oil, could only yield a
> fraction of the world's needs.
> And no one can think of an alternative fuel for aeroplanes.
> Jeremy Leggett: So I’ve looked at it all and I don’t see a way of
> closing the gap quickly enough. That’s the honest and depressing
> answer. It’s all about renaissance. It’s all about how quickly we can
> repair the problems and get an alternative infrastructure after the
> crisis breaks.
> Narration: Whether we reach the end of cheap oil in 3 years or 30, it
> will be a defining moment for human society.
> Even if there’s only a one in ten chance the early peakers are right,
> with the lifeblood of our economy at stake, shouldn’t we listen, just
> in case.
> Eric Streitberg: If people like myself are taking the view that they
> need to speak out, I think it’s time to start taking it seriously.
> Peter Newman: We have lots of preparedness for terrorist attacks; but
> where’s the plan for peak oil? We don’t have one.
> Jeremy Leggett: I think the interesting thing about the problem is
> that we’ll find out. We’ll find out who’s right really soon, within a
> few years it will happen and play out on our watch.
> Story Contacts
>
> Dr Doug Schwebel
> Geologist
> ExxonMobil
>
> Barry Jones (the late)
> Former Executive Director
> Australian Petroleum Produciton Exploration Association (APPEA)
>
> Dr Jeremy Leggett
> Geologist / author
>
>
> Eric Streitberg
> Managing Director
> ARC Energy
>
> John Ellice-Flint
> Managing Director
> Santos
>
> Prof. Peter Newman
> Transport Academic
> Murdoch University
>
>
> On 06/05/2006, at 10:13 PM, Anne Goddard wrote:
>
>> spose..?
>> or you and other list members could order a bunch bundy boxes of
>> nannies straight to you? for yourselves and friends?
>> friend of mine sells passionfruit, is happy getting $18 a box when
>> prices are high. I hear they are getting $25 a box on resale.. and u
>> guys pay $1 per passionfruit?
>>
>> seems lots of middle man mark up through the supermarkets.
>>
>> for $20 i can supply my self with plenty of locally grown
>> fresh veggies and food comfortably if i buy at our markets... the
>> same amount costs me between $50 to $100 from the supermarket.
>>
>> We pay for convenience. Simple as that.
>>
>> Regards
>> Anne
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: Roy Garner
>> To: maillist for Green Activists
>> Sent: Saturday, May 06, 2006 5:04 PM
>> Subject: Re: [Green-Activist] Spiralling cost of bananas... not very
>> mellow!
>>
>> Hi, again Anne
>> Not much on ABC's Landline
>> http://www.abc.net.au/landline/archives/
>> LandlineSubjectIndx_Bananas.htm Only two stories, one from July 2002
>> (Banana grower turns waste into wine), and November 2001 (Scientists
>> research banana disease).
>> Perhaps we could request they investigate?
>> Cheers,
>> Roy
>>
>> On 06/05/2006, at 4:22 PM, Anne Goddard wrote:
>>
>>> hiya Roy...
>>>
>>> boy, you would get some bender growers noses out of joint suggesting
>>> to
>>> import i think...
>>>
>>> for example, what sort of procedures would need to be put into place
>>> to
>>> protect the local industries from overseas diseases? how stringently
>>> would
>>> those procedures be policed?
>>> I rescued many green tree frogs from cool room mango and banana
>>> boxes (from
>>> Queensland) whilst living in Sydney. These delightful little animals
>>> are now
>>> serving out their lives getting very fat and well cared for behind
>>> glass at
>>> Taronga now.
>>>
>>> Unable to be returned home due to the dangers of their importing live
>>> disease back.
>>>
>>> Importing is dangerous.
>>>
>>> However, keeping an eye on prices, and refusing to pay exorbitant
>>> rates
>>> should encourage honesty.
>>>
>>> The local bananas i buy have not increased in price though the
>>> majour chain
>>> stores prices seem to have doubled. So from what i can see, if you
>>> buy
>>> locally, from undamaged crops, your pretty right. However, if you
>>> have no
>>> choice but to buy in majour supermarket chain stores, the prices have
>>> doubled (here) in some stores, not a happy state for our city
>>> dwellers.
>>>
>>> Therefore my first hand report from bundaberg..
>>>
>>> In banana producing rural areas (crop unaffected by storms -
>>> probably a
>>> bumper season) prices are stable, in the larger market, they are
>>> being
>>> heavily affected by price increases.
>>>
>>> Says something for growing locally doesnt it.
>>>
>>> Cheers
>>> Anne
>>>
>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>> From: "Roy Garner" <rrgarner at bigpond.net.au>
>>> To: "maillist for Green Activists"
>>> <green-activist at lists.altnews.com.au>
>>> Sent: Saturday, May 06, 2006 2:05 PM
>>> Subject: [Green-Activist] Spiralling cost of bananas
>>>
>>>
>>> Dear Activists,
>>> Just after Cyclone Larry, concerns were expressed about profiteering
>>> because of alleged shortages in the supply of bananas, but they were
>>> just as quickly dropped, and consumers have been left in the dark as
>>> to
>>> why the price of bananas has gone through the ceiling, topping $10 in
>>> Sydney, with rumours putting the price as high as $15 in some places.
>>> The high costs of transportation and remoteness of alternative
>>> supplies
>>> are cited as reasons for the price hike, but without a comprehensive
>>> investigation, consumers' suspicions will not be laid to rest, with
>>> the
>>> truth benders vying with the banana benders for centre stage.
>>> If you're unhappy with the prices, you can help the push to uncover
>>> the
>>> truth by registering your complaint with the Australian Competition
>>> and
>>> Consumer Commission at
>>> http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/54217/fromItemId/
>>> 3634
>>> But the ACCC won't really act unless you can give them evidence of
>>> collusion to fix process. So please put the word around and gather
>>> the
>>> evidence, if you can.
>>> Some questions you might ask:
>>> What is the true extent of the crop loss, and are there sufficient
>>> reserves in storage to supply local markets until the new season
>>> bananas come on stream?
>>> Are banana growers in areas not affected by the cyclone exporting
>>> their
>>> best bananas rather than sending them to local markets?
>>> Would importing bananas help bring the prices down?
>>> Cheers,
>>> Roy
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Green-Activist mailing list
>>> Green-Activist at lists.altnews.com.au
>>> http://lists.altnews.com.au/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/green-activist
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
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